Following property market control on September 30, housing sales plummeted in first-tier cities and some hot-spot cities, but housing price was basically unchanged, which implied that, so long as the expectation of rising market price is not changed, property market investors are unwilling to resell their residential houses at a lower price, and the market will basically maintain in stand-off state.

The duration of such stand-off state depends mainly on whether property market restores to residential function and de-bubbling, which could be fulfilled by edging in the following two aspects:

First, tighten housing mortgage loan in a national level. Over the past year, the craze of housing market is directly related to excessive easing ofpolicy on housing mortgage loan. If such policy is not tightened, the control effect of purchase quota policy will be limited.

Second, tighten housing tax policy. Tax policy is the most effective tool to hold down property speculation and squeeze out real estate bubble. Housing tax includes transaction tax, property tax or house property tax, vacant home tax, estate tax etc.; these tax policies are effective to restrain in-process, post-transaction and holding speculation aspects. For instance, housing tax policy is the main tool of restraining property speculation in Canada and Hong Kong.

As for policy on housing mortgage credit loan, the amount of down payment rose in housing control policy enacted in September 30; also, stringent housing policy is implemented in some cities, with no adjustment to housing mortgage loan rate. Under the condition of all-out ban on down payment loan, increased amount of down payment can prevent many property investors from entering property market, and relevant data have revealed some clues from loan increase in October.

Updated data of PBC indicates that, by the end of October, loan balance in domestic and foreign currencies is ¥110.18 trillion, to calculate by 12.3% year-on-year growth rate, loan balance in RMB is ¥104.77 trillion, equivalent to 13.1% growth; registered loan increment in October is ¥651.3 billion, increase of ¥137.7 billion. Comparing with ¥1.22 trillion loan increment in September, however, it sharply fell 46.6% than the previous month; still, incremental social financing scale in October is ¥896.3 billion, nearly 50% lower than ¥1.72 trillion in September.

Bank loan increment in RMB in October fell 46.6% than previous month, an outcome that is related to great extent to enactment of macro-control of real estate market. With housing control policy in place, the percentage of down payment of housing mortgage loan rises, what's more, since residents are banned from purchasing third residential house, many property speculators have no access to property market, leading to monthly fall of near ¥500.0 billion medium-to-long-term loan increment as the main part of housing mortgage loan to the residents, and medium-to-long-term loan increment in October is only ¥489.1 billion. That is, macro-control of real estate market from September 30 caused fast decline of incremental housing mortgage loan to the residents, and consequently resulted in national plummet of housing loan increment.

With tightened gross amount of housing mortgage loan to the residents by regulatory authority, and substantial auditing of personal income of house purchasers by commercial banks, growth rate of housing loans may continue to slow down. In the upcoming two months, if housing mortgage loan to the residents keeps falling at a rate as in October, it means that property speculators are withdrawing from property market, on which domestic property market investors should have to keep a watchful eye.